Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
